That’s why all three pale in comparison to the tidal wave of change barreling down on the industry with the rapid onset of mobile banking. The so-called m-banking customers are able to conduct a wide range of transactions anywhere there’s a signal that can reach a mobile device.

Various consumer analyses suggest that, from fewer than half a million mobile banking users in 2007 and roughly 3 million in 2008, as many as 10 million Americans may have been using the technology by the end of 2009. And a study by Mercatus, the New York-based financial services firm, suggests that use of mobile banking services could exceed online banking within just five years—a growth rate of more than 50 percent a year.

“Online banking developed through a 10-year time span; we’re anticipating mobile banking to accomplish the same numbers in half the time,” says Brandon McGee, and Indiana banking official who moderates his own Web blog on mobile banking issues. “The growth is second to none.”

That has put the pressure on banks to get in the game—fast— if they haven’t already. One that has: Commerce Bank, the biggest in the Kansas City region. Cindy Tetrault, manager of online services, said Commerce had been offering mobile banking for a little over a year, “and what we’ve seen is, it’s sort of like the old days of starting online banking; it’s poised to really take off and become another one of the tools people use to manage their finances.”

In that respect, she said, it’s unlikely that the branch bank is becoming obsolete. “The kinds of things you will do on a mobile are not typically the kinds of things you would do in a branch,” she said. “People don’t typically go to a branch to check their balance, so we believe branch banking will still play an extremely valuable role into the future.”

Perhaps more than anything, the greatest potential for mobile banking involves client growth. By going mobile, banks have positioned themselves to capture not just the next cohort of young adults entering the consumer market, but the wealthier among them. Mobile banking users tend to maintain higher account balances than traditional customers, and their business will help leading-edge banks not only increase profitability, but reduce customer-attrition rates.

Among the emerging risks? The potential loss of revenue for both banks and credit-card companies as mobile customers tap into such anticipated capabilities as peer-to-peer payments. An oft-cited example is possibility that a group of friends goes to dinner, with one making the payment to the restaurant and the others paying their shares to him with direct deposits to his
bank account, right there at the table.

The technology for that is still emerging, as well as the ability to use a chip-embedded smart phone for direct payment to a retailer, said McGee. But rapid advances in both the hardware and software capabilities will continue to challenge banks’ abilities to put both to best use. And, in fact, because banks don’t know yet where it all will lead, they’ve been somewhat circumspect in making decisions about what services to offer customers, and how quickly, before they know the full impact.

“We’re still defining the possibilities, because the technology is evolving so quickly,” McGee said. “Each hardware provider is continuously coming out with new components, handsets, for example, that we didn’t even know were possible five years ago.”

Wherever banks stand in their mobile-banking strategies, those who follow the industry closely say that if they aren’t on board with a system yet, they need to be. Rapid growth in mobile banking has seen nimble institutions already moving toward second- and third-generation mobile systems while competitors are still getting their first versions rolled out.